Dollar rate: forecast showed oddities

The new government yet, but the main task before him is already set: to ensure that the pace of economic growth above the world average, and there is to increase GDP per capita — this time not to the level of Portugal, but in half. Apparently, the Prime Minister will remain the same, and the pace of the economy?


The Ministry of economic development almost simultaneously announced the results of April and issued another version of the forecast of development of economy in 2018. What has changed?

The good news is that there are bad and weird. First the good news — of course, oil. The budget is formed based on the average price of $43,8 per barrel, and the new forecast raised to $61,4. The Ministry of Finance can RUB hands: its coffers in the form of sovereign wealth funds needs to be replenished.

But much more interesting: feel whether the hydrocarbon generosity of the citizens? The new forecast of “real disposable income” should grow by 3.8% instead of 2.3%. Let me remind you that 2017 was recorded a decline of 0.8%. While wages should rise even more — quite impressive 6.3 per cent instead of previous forecast of 4.1%.

Even do not believe, according to the new forecast, the dollar will become more accessible. Earlier its price in an average year was called 64.7 ruble, and now to 58.6. Only price (bad news) is somewhat disappoint in the same forecast they were ordered to grow only 2.8%, and now — given freedom of growth to habitually memorized 4%. But we have seen a very different race of prices, so that life becomes better, life becomes merrier!

It’s time to turn to the weird. The main news of the weird has already sounded. The strangest, of course, is the new average rate of the dollar. Recent developments in the foreign exchange market he did not agree. Forecasters, as always, slowly-pensive. New sanctions and geopolitical risks hit the ruble, they didn’t notice. To assume that the ruble will “bounce” drawn to the Ministry level will undertake and the desperate do. So, the forecasters looked to one side, and the market in another. Not for the first time. It is not excluded that the exchange part of the forecast right now will be edited in accordance with the new realities. In any case, the forecasters will be what to do with myself next time.

Another, this time a traditional and independent forecasters strange news — is the rate of wage growth substantially is outstripping growth of real incomes. It would be nice if this gap meant that almost everyone working the Russians, moreover, let and small, but the shareholder regularly receives hefty dividends from their shares. Somewhere in again curse the West something similar, but Russia, as usual, own traditions. This time the sovereign tradition of shadow work, or easier all the same salary (or their considerable part) are received in the envelopes. Here, at least for now, evidenced by the Ministry, nothing changes.

But the oddities don’t end there. Despite the fact that the projected rapid income growth and a notable increase in investment in productive capital (the new forecast of 4.8%), GDP stubbornly responds fast recovery. The Ministry clearly scratching their heads over this phenomenon. What can be seen, for example, in the recognition made in the “Picture of the economy. April 2018”, executed in the Ministry: “the accelerating rate of wage growth is amazing looks a slowdown in the annual growth rate of retail trade turnover in February compared to January.” At least be honest. The proposed explanation is that “an increasing share of consumer spending of households begin to occupy not included in retail sales transactions (e.g. cross-border Internet trade)”, apparently, is not entirely satisfactory even to those who put it forward.

But as they say, ignorance of the law is no excuse for it. This I mean that to solve the task of accelerating GDP growth still have. Meanwhile, there is a reverse process — slowing down. The Ministry of economic development says in January the growth was 1.7% in February to 1.3%. The global average rate, ay!

But the Minister Maxim Oreshkin without a fight don’t give up. The article “Perspectives for economic policy”, recently published, he admits: “If judged on the results of 2017 in the rate of growth of real GDP, the Russian indicator (1,5%) significantly below average (3.7 percent)”. But the situation is easily correctable. It turns out that “it is more correct to use the indicator “growth rate of GDP per person aged 15-64 years.” The figure for Russia last year amounted to 2.3% and the global average of 2.6 per cent (for developed countries it was 2.2%, for developing and 3.5%). In this context, the results of the Russian economy was only 0.3 percentage points below the world average, while the level of GDP per capita at purchasing power parity in Russia exceeds the global average of 62%. Adjusted to a higher level of economic development of Russia the pace of economic growth in the past year, consistent with global trends”. What we wanted to prove. Here to you and “consistent with global trends,” and “a higher level of economic development of Russia”.

The main thing — to take the matter skillfully, and the task set by the President have been resolved. And even pereleshina.

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