What will our future economy and how to make it closer to the way that is most appropriate power, are the main issues that first tried to solve the expert economists turned strategists, and now, when their development has reached the Kremlin will decide policy. What is before them and before us a choice?
In the dispute of economic policies that are written by experts Alexei Kudrin and Boris Titov, can win a government program, prepared under the leadership of Minister Maxim Oreshkin.
As you know, on the table of the President or three of the document. One written by the government, according, mainly, to the economic development Ministry and the Finance Ministry; the second in the Center of strategic development Alexey Kudrin; and the third in the Stolypin club Boris Titov. Originally one of the sponsors, if not the ideologist of the program, was prepared in the Stolypin club, was the academician, presidential adviser Sergei Glazyev, but closer to the finish line he fell out of the race. He talked about the fact that the government ignored his ideas, and chose to leave the game. But its a program he has, it’s called “12 steps”.
In any case, the fact that Stolypin club at the highest political level is involved in the race of economists, programmers, significant. On the one hand, it is a political success of its head Boris Titov, who is not only the business Ombudsman, but also the leader of a political party, not accidentally named “Party of growth”: it is accepted, however, without tangible success, participation in the latest parliamentary elections. On the other hand, as they say behind the scenes action of the Stolypin club stands on the Olympic principle: the main thing is participation and not victory. The involvement of “Stolypina” to the development of the strategy demonstrates to society the absence of a monopoly on the truth, on which the government do not seem to apply. The chances of that club ideas will form the basis of the outcome document, is minimal. This, however, does not mean that some of the proposals Titov and his associates can not be integrated into the final document.
It might seem like it is possible to predict the results of the ongoing brainstorming, even without being three programs? . If you consider that preparing not just another purely economic programme, and the document that will become an integral part of the programme of action of the future President. Presidential elections the new government. But, first, the Duma elections showed that “stolypins” with the “Party of growth” is a serious political force are not. This, incidentally, is already trying to take advantage of United Russia, which announced the preparation of their own economic program, but until the game goes without them. Second, the name of the future President, according to the expectations, you know, and that means fundamental changes in our economic policy, not likely to happen.
But if the program of the Stolypin club, at least known, the same cannot be said neither about the program of the government or the CSR program. If the vultures in government projects is still somehow understandable, the position of the CSR, which is headed by Alexey Kudrin — not only ex-Minister of Finance, but also the leader of the Committee of civil initiatives, is puzzling. The logic of civil initiatives, this position is not consistent. The explanation may be two. The first — the CSR strategy from the beginning was seen as a Wheeler in the top three, and not to show it, it decided to the public not to make. The second program is unpopular. The audience decided ahead of time not to irritate, and the government, who will run the program, we obviously unpopular. Because it traditionally holds basically right in the system of political coordinates of positions, and companies for the advantage of left preference. While the apparent contradiction due to its popularity could ease Vladimir Putin that the government and forms.
Everything is relative
At the recently concluded St. Petersburg economic forum three programs are shorter and figurative others have compared the Minister of economic development Maxim Oreshkin: “Stolypin club is to “flood” the economy with money, CSR is to increase budget spending in the hope of higher oil prices. The government is focused on creating predictable conditions for business and investment growth”. Your author’s preferences he could not hide.
If the documents are reviewed on the merits, the Tito program, the obvious outsider, because it is the most important part — the change in the policy of the Central Bank. It is proposed to carry out the investment issue and maintain the new money project financing. If Glazyev talking about a fundamentally different institution on the site of today’s Central Bank, which must become a state Bank with the main objective of bringing resources through the controlled banks to the real economy, then Titov, in principle, a similar idea is expressed softer. He shows some analogs of “quantitative easing, Russian-style”, believing that the experience of monetary policy, which is actively used all the global regulators, applicable in Russia.
The eye comes to a logical end. He argues that the risks of inflation are overvalued because of nepomneschi of the Russian economy, and in parallel proposes tighter regulation, primarily in the foreign exchange market that the issue has not led to a period on the whole route of resources from the updated Central Bank to enterprises. Titov as the owner of the tighter regulation doesn’t want, but his proposals are proinflationary what he objected to in that spirit that the increase above the “fetish of inflation.” The problem of the Stolypin club, that the new role of the Central Bank — an idea politically not communicating, Vladimir Putin has repeatedly expressed support for the financial policy pursued by Elvira Nabiullina.
The policy of the Central Bank, in principle, support CSR, and the government. If you judge the government’s programme for megaprogram for 2035, which became known through leaks to the media, the future looks more like stagnation. Not ideas, and income. Not all of course, and for employees and retirees.
Universal source of growth was found to increase employment, increase investment and productivity. In other words, combined, all sources of growth, in addition to external and consumer demand. Here and extensive (expansion of employment) and intensive factors (labour productivity growth). When it turns out that one of the main sources of growth of employees — those who today are considered partially employable, people who have reached retirement age, doubts creep in: what is the forecast of the growth of the economy or the budget problems that are not the same.
Why employment growth bulges the increase in the retirement age, and not, say, professional training of labour migrants, the number of which obviously will not decrease? The answer is obvious. Training needs money, and the increasing age of retirement the budget does not require anything, on the contrary, reduced the transfer to the Pension Fund. Assistance in employment of new old employed the author of the forecast of Ministry of economic development, does not offer.
But what is economic growth? The logic of the Ministry could be that the savings on transfer to the Pension Fund will untie the hands of the budget to support economic growth. Of course, there are arguments that even the current pension system is unsustainable for the economy. But there is a big difference between the situation when the resources for something was not there, and the situation, when taken away what little they had. If you recall the political activity of seniors and what they exactly have nothing to lose (which they proved in protest at the time against the monetization of benefits), the proposal of the Ministry of economic development is politically very risky.
If we go back to a purely economic logic, while the new means which receives the budget, is not going to support the economy. The latest example: at the end of may the Ministry of Finance proposed due to the additional oil revenues to increase the budget expenditures of 361, 8 billion. But the main recipients of additional funds become security forces, health will receive an additional 1.8 billion, and the program of social support of citizens and all will be trimmed by almost 400 million virtually any due to the reduction of benefits for pregnancy and childbirth, as well as payments to the families of the dead soldiers and “Chernobyl”.
Deciding that consumer demand is not the locomotive, the authorities removed from its support, redirecting all employers. In fact, the new locomotive was never found. The victim was a retired growth is unlikely to support.
At CSR, too, has the idea of increasing the retirement age. But with the growth of size of pensions in real terms by 2024, one-third. Where is the money? CSR proposes to raise the price cut in the upcoming budget rule that will Supplement the budget. The problem of poverty is also not overlooked. In particular, it is proposed to expand the purpose of the parent capital to families with incomes below the subsistence level it can be used as “monthly allowance for the repayment of the current deficit per capita income.” Not much, but given the scale of the official poverty line (i.e. poverty, covering 20 million people), is still support.
Among the economic measures of privatization and regulatory restrictions-expansion of the public sector. CSR also offers the share of spending on education and health in GDP to increase by 0.8% and 0.7%, infrastructure — 0.8 percentage points, respectively.
Curious solution of the problem of modernization of structure of economy. Is proposed to make the icebreakers a major “strategic consortia”, which the state will support specinvtehnica and even subsidies. In a number of consortiums open doors to leading foreign companies. The main engine should be expansion of non-oil exports at the level of consortia and small and medium-sized companies with active costimulatory the development of the digital economy.
The CSR program has a great strategic Outlook compared with its competitors. But there may be some “convergence” from certain provisions and programs of the Stolypin club. Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich, for example, counted 70% of the matches the two programs. The position of Anatoly Chubais: “Boris Titov, it is sensible and reasonable piece about the judicial reform, which he by the nature of the work face. Alexei Leonidovich is a very serious measure on judicial reform in particular the law enforcement system in General. In this sense, there is quite something to integrate. But at the same time it is wrong to make this salad, slice the back again of cabbage, potatoes, carrots and beets from each, mix it all together.”
The principle is clear. One program — most likely from the CSR is taken as a basis, including in the ideological part, the individual components may compile with other programs. It is not only judicial reform, which is already supported by the St. Petersburg forum, Vladimir Putin, but the development of high-tech exports, and even foreign policy and support of modernization projects.
In any case, one thing is clear: a battle of strategies — not the last battle that “the most difficult.” The biggest difficulty will begin with the implementation of the adopted program. While none of the strategic programmes, which were adopted in 2000, could not boast of having done at least half. This difficulty must be overcome — at least to 2035.