Russia is waiting for administrative reform

The most interesting thing about the victory of Vladimir Putin in the elections, of course, she (in this outcome there is little doubt), and that the President had deployed, a clear program. It happened, of course, not because of laziness the “programmers” of the Kremlin administration. The goal was just to have a new old President was completely free hand. Why did he make them?

Someone will object: is the election Message, not a program? There is the increase in life expectancy, and the latest weapons (which, it should be noted in parentheses, the actual life expectancy may be shortened), and the increase in GDP per capita, and new roads, and many others are very important. All the way. But the program is not just a list of goals. It is their hierarchical structure and, most importantly, a detailed mechanism of their achievements. The Message is a different genre.

If we limit ourselves economy, experts long used to its development strategy for a new presidential term with a pre-set Putin’s goal. The struggle was for the choice of the way of their achievement, its sharpness and politically sensitive is a reflection of the fact that funds are not less important than the goal. Putin before the election about the means to achieve the goals certainly have not spoken. It turns out that the noisy debate “strategy” so to anything and did not lead — as they say in the old Italian movie: “the Consequence is finished, forget?..”

The main lesson from the discussion is still extracted: it is expected a sharp increase in attention to the selection and monitoring of achievement of strategic objectives. The Kremlin said that before the government which should be formed for the inauguration of the elected President, put the task allocated on the basis of the campaign Messages, 10 strategic directions for government: five in the social sector — health, education, demography, housing, environment; five in the economy — productivity, digital economy, safe and quality roads, small and medium business export support. In each area there will be a national projects or programs, they will be clearly defined objectives, indicators, targets, specific actions, required funds, deadlines, and will be named responsible for the implementation of the Ministers.

The election Message is not for nothing that compares with the May 2012 Executive orders. There installation on the presidential six-year-olds. The objectives are similar, their means are completely different. You can argue about fully made the May decrees, but it is important to stress that their implementation has broken the orders and instructions of the President, Premier, Vice-premiers. Orders were hundreds. And this is precisely the case when the size matters. This is the notorious manual control of the economy. The mechanism of control laid over the next six years, another. It can be called not a sectoral and project-target.

Hence — two consequences. Firstly, the new control mechanism and requires a new organization of the government. It is possible to increase the number of Vice-premiers, Ministers become curators of national projects. The vector of changes is to ensure conditions that do not allow the government to drown in operational matters, missing strategic goals. The second consequence is the major upgrade of personnel of the government.

But for what purposes afoot another administrative reform, which, so as not to Wake the negative Association will probably be called differently? In General, the main priority three: development of human capital, infrastructure and the new digital economy. To move forward to achieve these goals, some changes in management (although important) is not enough. Need additional resources. And here, of course, the fun begins.

Your calculations offers CSR Alexei Kudrin, but has already made public the rating of the Kremlin administration. Additional costs for health, infrastructure and the digital economy for the next six years closer to 1.5% of GDP. For reference: the state budget is about 30% of GDP, so additional funds albeit with difficulty, but in principle you can find. Especially because their main source is not so much the cuts in other items of government spending (so you can cut military spending, because the peak of the saturation of the army with new weapons has already passed), but the calculation of the growth of the economy, which will bring new revenues to the budget. It is the growth of the economy by 3.5–4% in the year to bring basic means necessary for realization of the main goals of the next six years.

However, this calculation is justified, there are doubts. Still, the government had to respond in the first place for the growth of the economy without being burdened with the solution of the important task of improving the quality of growth due to new national projects. However, the growth rate is very far from necessary. Moreover, for the period until 2020 no forecast of the GDP growth rate at 3.5–4% is not promising. This means that half of the new presidential term will take place, and funds necessary for the implementation of the campaign Message, to turn towards the new economic development, is more oriented to the development of human capital may simply not be. In the second half of his term, no one really haven’t seen, while all hopes are pinned on her.

Well, there’s quite a bit interesting.

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