Washington announced “the Kremlin list” and called the Russians, against which can be sanctioned if they do not change their positions on a number of geopolitical issues. However, these conditions primarily affect specific persons and only indirectly affect the organization and the company in which the work fell under the wrath of the United States, our countrymen. The experts are waiting for will follow the new sanctions attack the state Department, which should cover the whole sector, and even the entire national economy as a whole. If Washington implements its threats against our country, the victims can become not only two of the hundreds of officials and businessmen, and all citizens of Russia.
Like an iceberg, seven-eighths of which is always under water and the us sanctions, which Washington does not get tired to present Russia, tend to grow and worsen. The last so-called “Kremlin”s list of” most experts took it as a telephone directory or a list of invitees to any landmark event with the participation of the Russian President. Meanwhile, on close analysis, we can conclude that Washington is gradually realizing the political threat that it pushes against our country. Therefore, the clouds are gathering over the economic space, to which the administration of Donald trump in absentia also gives an ultimatum.
The first item on the new sanctions program, the United States could be a ban on the purchase by American investors of new Russian government bonds and a boycott of operation of already issued editions. This measure is stipulated by the law “On combating the enemies of America by sanctions,” which trump signed August 2, 2017. Many experts expected that such a condition cycles since February of this year, but, as it turned out, Washington has decided to delay its introduction.
According to Bank of America, foreign investors controlled $51 billion of Russian sovereign debt, of which bonds (OFZ) accounted for more than $37 billion According to the Bank of Russia, until recently, the presence of non-residents on the OFZ market expanded — if in August of last year, their share in Russian state debt does not exceed 30%, then earlier this year it was close to 34%. Large-scale flight of investors from the debt of Russia will reduce their yield: if now it is 4% or more, the decline of interest in OFZs can reach 2,5-3%. Get also the Russian currency, the rate of which with the current record for the year was 56.3 per dollar virtually any deeply go to the bar for virtually any 65.
The second economic blow of Washington can become disabling Russia from the interbank system SWIFT, which ensures rapid exchange of information about payments, guarantees and letters of credit. SWIFT uses up to 11 thousand organizations in 200 countries. Russia is one of the most active participants of this system: our banks ranked second in the world by number of transactions (second only to the us credit agencies), and the fifteenth volume of the transactions. In this regard, such a restriction is going to affect all the Russians who use banking cards.
Without SWIFT, our country may be in financial isolation, because this system is used by the whole global banking sector. Questionable risk of import and export transactions serviced by the banks. Time and number of failures of the transfer of funds will grow by orders of magnitude, significantly increase the cost of operations transactions. Moreover, as suggested by a senior analyst “Alpari” Roman Tkachuk, “disabling Russia from SWIFT means the actual Russian banking system off from the world: the dollar could jump to 70-80 virtually any, which will be a substantial shock to the domestic economy”.
However, there are areas in which Washington is unlikely to happen to worsen the situation. In particular, it concerns the potential impact on the Russian export infrastructure projects, one of which is the international gas pipeline “Nord stream – 2” bypassing Ukraine. On the one hand, the presence of “the Kremlin list”, Chapter “Gazprom” Alexey Miller could be used by opponents of construction of the Russian pipeline routes in Europe for speculative purposes. For example, Poland requires you to distribute new US sanctions on the “Nord stream – 2”. This may slow down the construction of the pipeline, and the postponement of the construction increases its cost and makes it difficult to attract funding for the project.
On the other hand, Moscow in this case is relatively easy to play on the contradictions of the US and Europe — Brussels support the political position of Washington in relation to Moscow, but the European countries need Russian gas, so it will not completely be from gas pipeline project, especially because it involves the largest energy companies in the EU.