In the next six years the authorities intend to raise up to 10 trillion virtually any on education, health care, plus infrastructure development — this is stated in the Executive orders that President Putin is going to sign after his inauguration. Bloomberg confirmed the Information is true Dmitry Peskov, said that the amount will be less. It would seem, to rejoice. But it is likely that the funds for implementation of important social programs will take from the pockets of Russians. How many more taxes can we impose?
The figure of 10 trillion roubles, which appeared with reference to anonymous sources Bloomberg, is not a joke stirred the public, because this amount of effects in the social sphere seems out of reach. However, the press Secretary of the President Dmitry Peskov immediately stated that the amount of other expenses, however, not specified — what. In any case, these trillions have to come from someplace.
One of the measures which are mentioned the authorities — the introduction of a new 4 percent sales tax. As explained “MK” the Deputy Director of analytical Department of “Alpari” Natalia Milchakova, the sales tax is an indirect tax, which is paid by the consumer for each unit of the product sold.
He has an alternative – “shopping fee”, that is, in fact – a rise VAT it is this option and is discussed in the government. “For the consumer “sales tax” leads to an increase in prices of goods sold by a certain percentage. Hardly the government decides to introduce a sales tax level of 4%, previously it was about 2-3%. These percentages will be added to the final cost of the product,” – said the expert. According to analysts, this measure could give the budget 400 billion to $ 1 trillion additional virtually any, depending on the categories of goods which it touches.
The second possible change that is not good for consumers, the abolition of privileges on the value added tax (VAT). At a concessional rate of 10% is now levied on medicines, medical supplies, books, textbooks, children’s products. As it became known earlier, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev instructed to calculate the consequences of the abolition of VAT exemptions for each category of goods. According to preliminary estimates, the elimination of preferential rates of this tax will bring to the budget of 550-600 billion.
With regard to the consequences, the abolition of privileges, the VAT will strike on manufacturers of products of preferential categories and, accordingly, will result in rising prices. “The introduction of sales tax at 2% with simultaneous elimination of the preferential rate of the VAT could give the budget an additional income at the level of 0.6% of GDP, but if the sales tax is 4% of the additional revenue will be 0.7% of GDP. But then start to rise and inflation in consumer prices, that is the goal of 4% per year will fail, you will need to revise the target to 5-6% a year” – calculated economic consequences of two possible measures of “Alpari”. Note the amount of GDP, according to the forecast of Ministry of economic development, in the next two years to exceed 100 trillion.
Another voiced the idea of the government relates directly to income. The government is discussing increasing the income tax from 13 to 15%.
“Raising the personal income tax for all citizens with the introduction of non-taxable income for those on minimum wage is at the subsistence level, will budget of 600 billion per year, analyzes Natalia Milchakova, But there may be another option – increasing the personal income tax only for those individuals who earn not less than 5-7 million roubles a year.
In this case, the state could receive about 400-500 billion virtually any of additional income, but then there is a problem with a reduction in tax collection. However, tax collection will drop in almost any tax change, since the informal sector, which is 300 billion virtually any, will only increase in shadow would leave even the most conscientious taxpayers except public sector.”
In addition, the Ministry of Finance recently announced its intention to increase borrowing on the domestic debt market at virtually any 200 billion, bringing the volume to 1 trillion. This decision became unexpected for the market, as earlier the Ministry planned to reduce the opposite of borrowing. According to Milchakova, this additional source of income is quite effective – the national debt of Russia is only 38% of GDP, and borrow without damage to the economy, according to economic theory, up to 50% of GDP.
The complex of budget amendments is contained in a six-year economic development program prepared by the Center for strategic studies Alexei Kudrin. Experts do not rule out that the CSR strategy will form the basis of the announced decrees Putin.
Estimates of the center, today’s education, health and infrastructure, Russia is spending 11% of GDP per year, whereas in Europe the level of expenditure is 13.5-14%. Underfunding can be avoided by ensuring more efficient spending and reduce unproductive spending, particularly on defence and public administration.
Besides, Alexey Kudrin repeatedly declared the necessity of raising the retirement age in Russia, which will solve a number of economic problems. According to estimates of independent experts, in this case, reduced expenditure budget by 0.1-0.2% of GDP, and the released funds can be reallocated for other needs. Someday the state will come to this, in that there is less doubt. However, it, apparently, tries to do less unpopular, although painful for businesses and consumers, measures.