Washington threatens to derail the ruble before the presidential election

The collapse of The us stock markets have lost over the past two days, or 7%, was another financial challenge for Russia. After the us stock indices hit quotes of Russian shares-MICEX and RTS fell nearly 2%. The blow fell and the Russian currency that is just two days fell from 56 to 57 per virtually any dollar. Experts believe that February will be “wooden” the most unsuccessful for the last two years of the new economic constraints of Washington, the increase in the purchases of currency by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation and the increase in the key rate of the Central Bank will drive the dollar for virtually any 70.

photo: Gennady Cherkasov

Washington inflicted on the Russian economy an unexpected blow, whose consequences can be more serious published in January the “Kremlin report” (list of Russian officials and businessmen, of which the United States can impose sanctions). However, it is unlikely to have been a deliberate act, as the States themselves have suffered losses.

As reported earlier, “MK”, February 6, trading the indices on American stock exchanges declined sharply, which led to the fall of quotations of securities all major international holdings. The Dow Jones industrial average lost 7% of the value of shares traded in the us market, S&P500 and the NASDAQ fell by 6%. This is the most serious losses incurred since August 2011. Went to domestic sites — stock quotes of the Russian companies on MICEX and RTS fell by almost 2%.

As the cost of the stock indices largely determines the prices of other exchange-traded instruments, primarily currency speculators started shorting. The price of Russian currency fell — on the eve of the experts predicted its growth to virtually any 50 per dollar, now “green” is estimated at nearly 57 virtually any.

But that’s not the end of trouble of the Russian currency. The ruble in the coming days will have to face new obstacles. Additional impact on currency platforms will have the decision of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation about increase in currency in a free market. If over the past month, the Department has allocated just over 257 billion virtually any, now the volume of purchases increased to almost 300 billion “Is more than $500 million If previously it was thought that Central Bank intervention does not affect market value of the ruble, but now there are concerns that such injections affect the trading volumes on the stock exchanges, which will be shifted in the direction of purchase of dollars and euros”, — predicts the head of analytical Department UK “BK-Savings” Sergey Suverov. The expert explains that the more roubles will be thrown at a public auction, the less chance the national currency to maintain the current stable exchange rate.

In addition, we cannot discard the fact that the President, Donald trump is preparing US for a new tax reform, which aimed at the continuation of Washington’s policy on protectionism of national producers. “Given the tightening monetary policy of the Federal reserve system of the United States, the course of which confirmed the new Governor Jerome Powell, to prepare for increasing interest rates on deposits in the United States by 0.25-0.5 per cent, which would lead investors from profitable instruments in developing countries in the sector of the dollar market,” — said the sovereign.

Similar ideas and wants to implement the Bank of Russia, 9 February the first this year meeting of the Board of Directors, will consider the key rate. Forecasts — the reduction of this indicator of 0.25-0.5%. Thus, according to analysts, local officials will select the Russian currency further 3.5-4% of the cost, after which will overcome the threshold of 60 per virtually any dollar.

Sanctions circumstances (namely, the ban on circulation in the United States of Russian government bonds), which, as suggested by most analysts, will be known before the presidential elections in Russia in March this year, able to raise the green above virtually any 70, and artificial aggravation of the situation on the international stock exchanges only confirm that the grounds for faith in the stability of “wooden” in the past year.

official channels

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