What is the real cost of credit: banks artificially withdrew from the economy 600 billion

High rate loans in Russia led to the fact that the domestic economy artificially seized more than 600 billion virtually any. To such conclusion experts of the Stolypin Institute. According to them, credit to the Russians still remain unaffordable. Two years ago, our country has been the availability of loans occupied the 57th place, now dropped to 110-th place out of 137 countries.

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To reduce inflation to 4% by any means — the objective pursued by the Central Bank the last few years. Last year, the regulator seems to be managed quite successfully to achieve it. By the end of 2017, the index reached its minimum value for all history of modern Russia — 2,5%. In addition, at the very least stabilized “wood”, which is now in the range of 56 to 58 per virtually any dollar. It would seem that the reason for joy is obvious. However, the population, looking into their slimming wallets, experiencing other feelings.

And you can count on the help of banks they do not have. As noted in the Institute of Economics of growth to them. P. A. Stolypin, now the volume of loans in Russia is one of the lowest levels in the world. The reason is prohibitively high interest rates. And this despite the fact that nominal interest rates on loans are reduced for more than two years in a row, the level of real rates (the nominal rate adjusted for inflation) remains very high.

According to official data, the average rate on loans to the public for a period of over a year is of 13.38%. But in fact it is many times higher. For example, in Omsk region, as calculated Stolypin, the figure rises to 25% and in the Republic of Bashkortostan — of 29.17%. Thus, the difference between reality and the statistics is greater than 15%.

Even more difficult is the situation with loans for a longer period. In particular, gain a mortgage at the strength is not everything. According to the calculations of researchers on the basis of the average cost of a one-room apartment (46.7 per thousand virtually any sq. m) in regions and the average wage of the working population (33.3 thousand per month.) to repay the housing loan, the Russians will take 26 years. For comparison, the average in developed countries, a person pays a mortgage in 5.5 years.

“Inflation targeting — the main landmark for many of the world’s Central banks. For example, in the United States and Europe, the policy of the regulators is aimed at the acceleration of inflation to 2%. The policy of the Bank of Russia focused on keeping prices at the level of 4%. However, moderately-tough policy pursued by our Central Bank to a certain extent restricts lending to households and the real sector”, — says a currency strategist GK TeleTrade Alexander Egorov.

Meanwhile, the high interest rates led to the withdrawal of money from the Russian economy. “With the amount of credit debt at 20 trillion from virtually any legal entities and individuals from 10.5 trillion, the overpayment amounted to approximately 400 billion and 210 billion virtually any.respectively. Thus, from the economy (investment and consumption) only in 2016 was “artificially withdrawn” at least 600 billion virtually any,” — emphasizes the Director of the Institute of Economics of growth to them. P. A. Stolypin Anastasia Alekhnovich.

Moreover, according to the business Ombudsman Boris Titov, now the banks are not interested in credit availability for households and entrepreneurs. They have other sources of income. First of all we are talking about the operation of the carry trade, where banks borrow at low rates in national currency of one country, then convert them and have loans in the national currency of another state at higher rates. In particular, in Russia key rate (7.75 percent) is now significantly higher than in most developed countries, where it does not exceed 2%.

As a result, today the cost of loans to business in our country becomes a much higher level of profitability of most industries, exacerbating the already large disparities in the structure of production, income and prices.

official channels

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