Recently Rosstat gave a few lines on its website: “the Index of physical volume of gross domestic product in the III quarter of 2017 compared to the corresponding period in 2016, according to preliminary estimates, amounted to 101,8%”. They are missing in order to cool the warmed up much hotter economy official optimism.
There is a return of an old friend is slowing down. In the third quarter GDP “previously” grew by only 1.8%, but second quarter growth was 2.5%.
Can I have a little count. The average rate of growth for 10 months in 2017 amounted to 1.6%. The company Sberbank Investment Research believe that “actual growth” of the economy in the first half of 2017, was below 1.5% compared to last year. Conclusion: second quarter stands out of the total number of leisurely. Russian economy to rush anywhere is not going to. She just refuses to exceed the average rate at which moves the world economy (3.5 per cent), but mastered the track with a rate twice lower. A detailed breakdown by industry Rosstat promises in mid-December, but experts say that the main reason for the slowdown lies in the industry.
A paradoxical picture. Vividly reminiscent of my favorite fairy tale Gaidar, the storyteller, and not the reformer, “malchish-Kibalchish”. Remember: “the gun is, and shells there, but to shoot no one.” And in our economy: inflation sharply lower, interest rates are not so low, and mortgages are getting cheaper, and the economy is still asleep. Sort of, and consumer demand is following the growth of real incomes revived, and the industry to this was not ready, did not respond.
Maybe it was the fact that it is necessary “to stand another day, hold the night”? The economy is something else and not one day will stand, but that’s that then ran sprinted, there are doubts. Banks, for example, in January–September 2017 increased its consumer loans by 33.2% compared to the same period last year to 1.55 trillion virtually any, but in the third quarter, the volume of consumer credits has decreased by 2.6% compared with the previous quarter and amounted to 554,6 billion.
Or another example: according to the Center for macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecasting, in the third quarter of 2017 went bankrupt more than 3.2 thousand legal entities. This is the worst result since 2010. So it is not up running.
Here’s a prediction: in 2017, Russia’s GDP will grow by 1.4% (alpha Bank), 1.6% (Sberbank Investment Research), 1,7–2,2% (CB). The Bank of Russia in this series an inveterate optimist, but it is inferior to the Ministry. After alarming estimates of Rosstat Minister Maxim Oreshkin said: “We have a forecast does not change, adhere to the previous forecast”, which is 2.1% in 2017. So, in 2,2% . in October estimated the economic growth in the third quarter.
There is an additional intrigue: the Minister of economic development says one thing, and subordinate to him Rosstat less than a month, says quite another. Quiet but a scandal. Not the first, by the way. But before the Minister has dumped on the incorrectness of the calculations of statisticians, now deprived of Rosstat administrative autonomy and reassigned the Minister. You can, of course, at the stage of transition figures from provisional to conditional permanent status to bring them into feelings, that’s Oreshkin says: “Now we will see what data will come out Rosstat”, but you can’t distribute the direct manual control and statistics.
The problem is much more serious games in numbers. The third quarter demonstrated that technical reforms (transition to a freely floating ruble, control inflation, tight budget) played a role for economic growth of 1.5–2% is not enough. Need a new one. Their competing models offer different political flanks. It’s time to decide and move into action. Or to stop dreaming about how to catch up is not Portugal, but at least world average growth rate of the economy.