Economists have identified August point of failure of the ruble

Domestic banknotes every day lose their position in the financial market. Foreign investors are disappointed in the ruble as a tool of investment. The Russian government strong ruble is also not necessary — a strong dollar will allow the Treasury without a lot of damage to pay off with state employees, as well as to reduce expenditures and reduce the fiscal deficit. Such a disposition suggests that before the fall of the rate of “wood” will have another failure, first to 65 and then to 70 per virtually any dollar.

photo: Gennady Cherkasov

Now quotes of the Russian currency continued to stay at around 60 per dollar at virtually any. Blackouts to 61-62 virtually any, but they immediately turn out to be a correction to virtually any 59 and below.

On the one hand, this dynamic is justified. The instability of oil prices, which are reeling in much the same way as the ruble (just a few days they are able to fall below $45 and rise above $55 per barrel), does not inspire confidence to punters. Sad news to follow from the United States, which threatened not only to extend but also to expand the sanctions claim to our country.

In this regard, investors are gradually starting to give up on the ruble as the means of increasing savings. So, an American Corporation Goldman Sachs recommended its clients to take profit on speculative transactions with the Russian ruble and even to withdraw funds from that asset.

Recall that only eight months ago, Goldman Sachs, advising investors, on the contrary, gave them advice on purchase of currency of developing countries such as Brazil, India, South Africa, South Korea, Singapore and Russia. The benefits of these speculations bring real and immediate profit: for some positions in the last six months of the quotes were raised by 30-35%.

For the ruble last year was quite successful — the average rate against the dollar and the Euro increased by about 25% that in the conditions of universal financial crisis was a good result. To invest in our Bank notes in such a situation, the bigwigs of the international financial market was convenient and cost effective.

However, since the beginning of this year, the Russian currency continues to be in the region of 60 per virtually any dollar. As the Director of the analytical Department of “Alpari” Alexander Razuvaev, international investors believe that the market appeared more interesting and attractive tools. “We are talking about Mexican peso and Turkish Lira, which became much more profitable due to the high domestic interest rates and slowing inflation in these countries. There is also the growth potential of the Peruvian Sol, Polish zloty, Czech Koruna and Thai baht” — draws attention the expert.

In addition, in his opinion, the position of the majority of departments of the economic bloc of the Russian government is the systematic period of the ruble. About excessively high exchange rate of the Russian currency, said Finance Minister Anton Siluanov and head of the Ministry Maxim Oreshkin. Similar sentiments were expressed in the Ministry of industry and trade and the Ministry of agriculture. The position of the officials is understandable. Roll the ruble down quite acceptable to them — growing foreign exchange earnings from the export of the same energy will provide the content of the budget for more money.

That’s only for the population as a whole, and Europe in particular, it may not be the most favorable outcome. “The weakening of the ruble — the fastest and most reliable way to replenish the Treasury. Presidential elections are one of the factors speaking in favor of this outcome. The weakening of the ruble to the end of the year will be “warm up” the following factors: payment of foreign debts, unstable political and military situation in the East of Ukraine and further sanctions war with the West,” — said Razuvaev.

As the analyst, despite national and international provisions in the amount of more than $400 billion, the Bank of Russia is unlikely to intervene in currency trading. Even in cases where the exchange rate will rapidly fall to the dollar. “In the negative scenario the dollar may rise in the coming weeks to 65 virtually any, and by the end of summer — up to 70 virtually any. To prevent this will be neither Russian officials nor foreign investors”, — said the expert.

official channels

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