Real disposable income of Russia’s population, according to Rosstat, in June of 2017 after a protracted recession finally ceased to roll down and showed at least zero dynamics. However, to rejoice there is especially nothing. These statistics are bound to the same month of last year, when real incomes fell respectively by 4.8 and 4.6%. Therefore, a zero indicator, which reached the government, seems quite unconvincing, and further statistics, according to experts, without government subsidies in the pre-election period would also be negative.
photo: Natalia Muslinkina
Recent data from Rosstat suggests that the real disposable income of the population of our country in June this year showed zero dynamics: that is, they did not increase, but, at least, and fell. In an average six months minus 1.4%. We will remind that in February of this year the decline amounted to 3.7% in March and 2.3% in April to 7.5%. Positive progress had been made in may: only minus 0.1%.
Now the country has reached the proverbial balance, and we can assume that the economy starts doing better. However, strong evidence of the advance of Russia in this way the authorities are not going to provide. That drop in real income of Russians is over, and in 2017 will begin their growth, said in November last year, first Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov at a business forum in Singapore.
Partly he was right. In January, the average income of people in Russia actually increased — by 8.2%. Only this was achieved through one-time payments to all domestic retirees. Each of them received 5 thousand virtually any, and in General, this draft of the budget was allocated about 200 billion virtually any.
Though, as analysts say, in an election year similar payments are quite possible, such costs are now in the Treasury is not provided, so rely on them as an additional incentive to the General increase in real income makes no sense.
According to the Deputy Director of analytical Department of “Alpari” Anna Kokoreva, a bright future, even despite the positive data of Rosstat, believe no reason. “Real disposable incomes of Russians for 2016 fell nearly 6%. For the first half of 2017, they decreased by another 1.4%. At the end of II quarter of 2017 and by another 2.7 per cent. According to retailers, the influx of buyers in shops of an average price segment has declined, and the network economy class, on the contrary, started visiting more. Those who had bought expensive and quality goods in connection with falling incomes are forced to save,” — said the expert.
This view is shared by analyst GK Forex Club Irina Rogova. “Real incomes depend on the level of nominal income and inflation. The last demonstrates the slowdown. Compared with June 2016 the price pressure has decreased in 1,7 times: from 7.5 to 4.4%. But the rate of growth of nominal wages did not catch up with pre-crisis levels. Dynamics of nominal wage growth depends on employers, their its willingness to increase the salaries. Positive changes in real incomes will start, when salaries will grow by 11-13% in annual terms, while maintaining inflation at the level of 4%” — the analyst believes.
According to Horn, for the essential growth of incomes of the population needed global economic growth — at least such, which was observed in the zero, when the salaries of our fellow citizens grew at a record pace. Only the estimated GDP growth of 2%, which is expected in the second half of 2017, support for this trend will not. The reason — reduction of budget revenues (due to volatile hydrocarbon prices) and the state’s desire to increase tax pressure, which ultimately affects the income of the population. “The Russian government should pursue expansionary policy that will lead to the creation of new jobs. With regard to real income growth, stable release positive levels in the next 3-5 years should not wait”, — concludes the expert.