It is now clear that Alexei Navalny to participate in the presidential elections will not be. But his electoral program he unveiled. The genre of such documents requires generous promises to the electorate, and the Bulk of them are not stingy. In particular, the pensions he promised to raise up to 20 thousand virtually any, the minimum wage — up to 25 thousand. Let me remind you that today the average pension in the country do not reach 13 thousand. As for the minimum wage (SMIC), it from 1 January 2018, the government sets the level 9489 virtually any, and then for the year promises to bring to the subsistence level, which currently stands at 11 of 163 of the ruble.
photo: Gennady Cherkasov
Round-up Bulk, no doubt, look much better. One problem: their actual payment (if for a moment assume that policies do become President and begin to fulfill the promise) is huge money. For example, the government in order to fulfil its modest promise to bring the minimum wage to the subsistence level (that is, raise the minimum wage by approximately 1,700 virtually any), will be required in 2018 to 25 billion virtually any from the Federal Treasury and more than 55 billion — from regional budgets.
And Bulk offers the minimum wage is almost triple. Moreover, such breakthrough will float the entire mesh of salaries in the public sector, and private structures, which is somehow repelled by the “minimal salary”. The magnitude of this accomplishment the labor market experts do not even dare to estimate, but the expense of the “extra” money to the salary in this case will not tens of billions and not even in the hundreds. Likely to operate will have trillion amount — and not a single. After the new, significantly raised the salaries of people will have to pay from month to month and from year to year.
Here pertinently to remind that in the real economy in which we live today, the Federal budget deficit, which the Ministry of Finance estimates, at the end of 2017 will amount to about 2 trillion virtually any. Where when such arithmetic is to take the money for additional wages?
To Finance his reforms, the Bulk going through the fight against corruption and reduction of cost of officials. The desire of praise, that only those processes, as historical experience shows, first, not fast, and secondly, mixed results. But the promised wages they should pay for every working day. So “minimal” in 25 thousand in today’s reality is unattainable? Achievable. Only to some workers such money received, the other will have mass deprived of jobs and thrown out into the street. Now the official unemployment rate in the country — about 5%, and will be under 10% and maybe higher. Besides, a large part of the economy will go into the shadows — simply can not cope with the new level of wages.
With regard to the means to increase pensions, then offer policy is more sophisticated. It offers even eliminate the Pension Fund of Russia and on its basis to create “the world’s largest Fund-investor”, by analogy with the Norwegian sovereign Fund. The opposition proposes to transfer to the new pension Fund the Fund of national welfare (now there are about 4 trillion virtually any), the shares of state-owned companies and their dividends as well as income from privatization.
It’s smacks of pure populism to say: let’s take the surplus “fat cats” — of state companies and Naftogaz — and give it to the poor elderly. But the income from the same oil, as we well know from sad experience 2014 can vary along with its price yesterday was $100 a barrel, today $35. A pension you have to pay again, every month without interruption. By the way, next year for these purposes is not yet closed Pension funds will have to spend to 7.15 trillion. No SWFs for this purpose is not enough…
Well, finally, a kind of icing on the cake for the electorate — mortgage at 2% per annum. However, this figure contains only the short version and the extended version of the document has not got it. Looks Too geeky, promise to give money to shelter everyone under the percentage is even lower than the prevailing rate of inflation. Navalny believes that the difference between market rates and the promised 2% to compensate for the state. Where it will take the money? The program Bulk refers to large-scale privatization program, but no serious calculations and justification of the figures is not given.
Meanwhile, mortgage at artificially low interest rates — is extremely dangerous. This requires a decade of stability without crises — is that the Russian economy like never seen before. Besides, according to experts, if the economy at the same time there are commercial loans (e.g., consumer) at 20% per annum and government-subsidized loans at 2%, it will certainly appear clever scheme, allowing to take one credit to earn on the other. This is a direct path to massive financial fraud and the new pyramid “MMM”.
So how do you relate to the program of Alexey Navalny? I think in the last turn as a document intended for practical implementation. Though, because politics will not allow the elections for legal reasons associated with his prior.
But also consider this program a blank piece of paper would be too unfair. Its value is in the fact that it very accurately diagnoses our state, designating it the problem points, and aiming for shooting. The extremely low level of salaries and pensions, calling on luxury state monopolies and selected oil and gas structures, impossibly expensive mortgage, coupled with massively unresolved in the country housing question, the huge gaps in living standards in different territories of our country, the unfair distribution of budget revenues — all these sores of our economy is well known. It is enough to read Newspapers, at least ours.
Recipes that to treat them offers Bulk, frankly, few are applicable in reality. But the very fact of their publication to get other people officially in power and intend to stay there in the coming years, to offer their own presumably more precise and realistic recipes for the treatment of the same disease. It is required to do within the framework of the election campaign, but in the interests of the whole society. And if this happens, Alexei Navalny knowingly published its programme.