The Federal reserve system (the fed) did not dare to raise the base rate and left it in the range of 1%-1,25%. However, the decision of the us regulator did not become unexpected for the market. This outcome was predicted by more than 95% of financial analysts. What is the indecision of the fed threatens the Russian economy and the ruble, “MK” asked the experts.
Typically, the main signal for the fed”s rate hike — the improvement of the macroeconomic situation in the United States. But this time the us regulator the state of the country was dissatisfied. “The consumer price index in the US in June remained at the level of 1.7%. Prior to that, he steadily declined the last 5 months. Simultaneously, in July also disappointing unemployment figures, the rate rose from 4.3% to 4.4%. That is, the regulator over a long period was able to assess the impact of previous increases in rates from 0.75% to 1.25%,” — explains the analyst of Forex Optimum Ivan kapustyasky.
Plus, the fed doubt in the implementation of promised economic programs of American President Donald trump, which promised a huge infusion into the economy of the United States.
However, to the fact that the fed will keep the base rate at the same level, experts do not doubt. Moreover, currency strategist at GK TeleTrade Alexander Egorov calls “this meeting is unimportant”.”Usually of the 8 annual meetings of the regulator only four are considered as milestones in the change in monetary policy. The other four meetings, with rare exceptions, are in the nature technical. Therefore, this meeting will not cause a violent reaction. Important for financial markets and the world economy following the September meeting of the American regulator”, — said the expert.
Meanwhile, the fed”s decision to keep the base rate on the arm of the Russian economy and our national currency. “On the ruble, the fed”s decision has a positive impact in the medium term. Domestic securities continued to be attractive to foreign investors because of high yields relative to foreign currency assets,” continues kapustyasky.
However, for a long time “wooden” is not enough. Traditional reasons for the weakening of the ruble, such as oil prices, has not been canceled. “The Russian currency there are other and more cogent reasons for concern: uncertainty in commodity markets still remains, despite the current rise in oil prices. In addition, in early August, ends the tax period, in which domestic exporters bought the currency and thereby supporting its course. However, next week the ruble will once again be one on one with him running away from investors” — the analyst believes the social network for investors eToro in Russia and the CIS Mikhail Mashchenko.
According to experts, by the beginning of autumn, the dollar can rise to virtually any 62.