The Maxim “two cent”: . stuck in your prediction

We had a Prime Minister who, when he was still in power, was nicknamed “Misha 2 percent.” Is Mikhail Kasyanov, his folklore attributed such a personal interest in the distribution of funds from external financing. Absolutely, admittedly, unproven: Prime, though now in opposition, but in freedom. Now we have the Minister “Maxim 2%”. This Maxim Oreshkin. Here 2% is a resistant of its prediction of economic growth.

photo: Natalia Gubernatorova

We must say, with forecasts of economic growth we have complete freedom. In the sense that they are completely free in their vibrations. Not predictions, and free. In the minds of those who must lead economic policy.

31 August 2017, when the end of the year was only four months, the Minister of economic development Maxim Oreshkin argued that by the end of the year, the economy would take the height to be 2.1%. The optimism he inspired the second quarter, when the economy nice hitting the government, grew by 2.5%. Later, however, she moved on to tripping and decreasing step poromiv Minister. In November, GDP was negative at all, so it was not up to 2%. On the website of Rosstat following the results of last years are 1.5%, but, most likely, the indicator will recalculate and raise, that the Minister was not hurt.

In the beginning of 2018 began a new round. The economy again rebounded, which neither government officials nor the independent experts had not predicted. According to official data, in annual terms, GDP has increased by the same one and a half percent, but pleased with the industry showing growth by 2.9%, and investments grew by 4.2%. … Immediately returned to the nose rose-colored glasses and Feb 22, said: “Latest data for January show a GDP growth of 2% compared to last year. Domestic market and demand has returned to stable growth.”

Whether to share the faith of the Minister in “the return of stable growth?” Faith, of course, is by definition irrational, but we should note two things. On the website of Rosstat, the growth of Russia’s GDP in January estimated at 1.5% (no one, however, does not prevent to round up to 2). But much more importantly. Stable growth of the Russian economy does not. As such. Was awarded a conditional spurt of the second quarter of last year, and then decay growth stalled in January 2018. So “stability” is, alas, more suitable deceleration.

The most important thing is that a forecast is needed in order to stay ahead of economic dynamics and point out its possible variations. We have the same forecast does not look, he ingeniously concludes, looking at the tail for past events. Moreover, these conclusions are based on very shaky ground — one quarter, as it was the first two-percent prediction Maxim Oreshkin, or at all one month, as happened in February 2018. Nothing prevents the economy to repeat the maneuver to gain speed in the beginning of the year to lose to the end. So faith should not be in a hurry.

But why did January of this year gathered? You can delve into the statistical intricacies. But we can say something long familiar. The average price of oil in January of 2018, totaled $69 per barrel, which is 28% more than in January last year. Even if the economy grew by 2%, the ratio of a 28% increase in oil prices and a 2% GDP growth suggests that Russia is losing the skill to use the oil doping to improve their economic performance, but rather, the previous doping for this is not enough. Besides, now the prices are already below $69 per barrel and more likely to decline than growth, because increases the growth of oil production in the United States.

And that is for “stable growth”, but is firmly entrenched in the subconscious calculation of oil-nurse? If you believe the Maxim Oreshkin, nothing. After all, he argues, “structural reforms”, called for from all sides, has “successfully completed”.

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