The price of partnership: Europe is profiting from the failure of Ukraine to trade with Russia

Refusal to trade with Russia continues to fly to Ukraine a lot of money, but every month the price “coin” is becoming more and more. In the night from Thursday to Friday, the price of gas jumped 20 percent. According to experts, growth will continue until the end of the heating period in Europe. In this regard, the Ukrainian authorities will be forced to raise tariffs for household needs that will hit the already empty pockets of Ukrainians.

photo: Natalia Gubernatorova

In October, 1,000 cubic meters of “blue fuel” Kiev 224,9 cost in the U.S. dollar, in November — 239,5, in December, the average price has already risen to the level of 250 “Washington”, but experts predict a rise to 260 by the end of the year. An unstable value due to the agreements Ukraine signed with European gas suppliers. If you were previously long-term contract with Gazprom with a fixed price per 1,000 cubic meters, now Kiev buys gas on spot contracts. This one-time transaction, the price of which varies by market, and accordingly the total raw material cost changes every week. The sharp jump at the end of the year is associated with the attachment of “blue fuel” to the oil. Now in world markets is increasing the price of “black gold”, and behind it is lifted and gas. Under long-term contracts, the price moves, as practice shows, once in 6-9 months, and on exchanges (hub spot), the price increases now. Well, the increased demand for goods beginning with the onset of winter, also plays a role.

Expert of the Ukrainian Institute of energy strategies Yuri KOROLCHUK told the “MK” on gas relations between Kiev and the EU.

— “Naftogaz of Ukraine” Ukraine in a disadvantageous situation, since long-term contracts there, and all of the gas (14 billion cubic meters in 2017) is bought on the stock exchange, the hub. The difference between the price of the hub and a long-term contract can range from 30 to 100 dollars. In the case of “Naftogaz” company overcharged about $ 40-50 per 1,000 cubic meters. That is now buy reverse gas from the EU at a price of 240 in November, and in December already 260. However, this is without the cost of logistics, which in November the price of gas was already $ 300, and in December — 320. At the same time the contract with “Gazprom” the price of the fourth quarter would be about $ 210. Such is the arithmetic, — the expert explains.

By the way, Ukraine is buying, essentially, the same Russian gas, but only from European suppliers who purchase it under long-term contracts and the remainder sold to Ukraine. Western partners of the Square, as they say, catch the moment (Hello Belarus with her shrimp!), earning the strained Russian-Ukrainian relations.

— Actually talking about buying gas in the “area” of the Austrian hub Baumgarten (on it on the morning of 12 December and the accident occurred, which forced the Italian authorities to introduce a state of emergency), which is of Russian origin. More than 90% of the contracts to deliver for contracts with this hub, says the Ukrainian expert. — Trading companies, supplying gas to Ukraine, buy it in large Russian companies, which take it from “Gazprom”. In the end, the traders add to the amount of their margin (10-15%) and resell to us.

The growth of prices for gas supplies, by itself, may impact on Ukrainian consumers, but the main role is played by agreements with the IMF. According to him, the Ukrainian government should raise gas price for population to the level of 9000-10000 USD. Now the price for the population — 6957 UAH for 1000 cubic meters of fuel. By the way, the Foundation continues to put pressure on Kiev, claiming that the rise in gas prices necessary to the well-being of the country, and low-income families will survive due to subsidies.

— We have the price for the population is tied to the cost of gas that we import from the EU. But the government violated the agreement with the IMF and increased the prices this year, although I should have done in mid-2017. The reason — expected elections, the discontent of the population and the need to increase the amount of subsidies in 2018 to 110 billion hryvnia. Last year, subsidies amounted to more than USD 70 billion. I think that while politicians will not raise the price of gas, summed up Korolchuk.

official channels

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