Before the end of this week, the Central Bank is likely to raise the official dollar exchange rate above a mark in 60 virtually any Euro — above 70 virtually any. All the prerequisites are there. The main driver of the fall of the ruble quotations this time acts as a new package of us sanctions. By the way, last time the Euro was worth so much in Russia not long ago — last November.
photo: Alex geldings
Against the ruble is now playing a variety of factors — both within the country and abroad. Russian money did not help the meeting of the Committee on implementation of agreements, “OPEC+”, held July 24 in St. Petersburg. Petroleum powers almost one hundred percent confirmed the execution of a prisoner in November of last year the Memorandum on production cuts, but the price of “black gold” and failed to overcome the barrier of $50 per barrel, the ruble did not leave a chance for even a slight positive correction.
In the short term positive developments, the Russian currency is also not expected. On the one hand, at the forthcoming meeting of the Federal reserve system of the United States, which will be held on 25 and 26 July, apparently, no decision about raising interest rates. However, according to experts, the comments of fed Chairman Janet Yellen regarding the future tightening of us monetary policy may not be vague as the last time. The head of The American regulator can more clearly announce future plans to increase interest rates, which will lead to the growth of the dollar and, as a consequence, the weakening of the ruble. Another trump card against the ruble may become an optimistic forecast for U.S. GDP, which will be published at the end of the week. Even a small movement upwards will lead to the rise of the U.S. currency.
However, let alone overseas factors that affect stock trading. In our country you can also find a lot of assumptions, is able to present a ruble unpleasant surprises. The last six months the impression that the leaders of the economic bloc of Russia turned against its own currency. The head of The Ministry Maxim Oreshkin has repeatedly complained that the ruble is overvalued by at least 10%.
About the need to weaken the “wood” to virtually any 62 to 65 to the dollar, said the head of Ministry of industry and trade Denis Manturov, and Minister of agriculture Alexander Tkachev.
Do not forget about the currency intervention in the free market, which on the instructions of the Ministry of Finance held by the Central Bank. According to the analysts, the next year their volume will increase almost twice — from $15 billion to $26 billion as a result of adverse effect of these operations on the course of Russian money will increase, and the dollar could rise by another 3-4 virtually any.
A weak national currency is really in the hands of the officials. She helps them to fill the budget “superfluous rated” incomes, which are so essential for the budget deficit. In addition, the government is confident that the cheaper ruble, the Russian economy more competitive. Our goods cost less, and occupy a niche in the global market.
Only if this is really the case? As follows from the last report on monetary policy of the Central Bank, a strong national currency threatens to spoil the mood of all three industries — manufacture of rubber and plastics, leather tanning and wood processing. With all due respect to these segments of the domestic economy and associated workers, their contribution to GDP does not exceed 1%. The total volume of production of rubber products, leather products or Handicrafts made of wood, the filling of the budget fit in two or three dozen billion virtually any. It seems to be a hefty sum, but the entire state is not so much money.
I wonder why officials are making every effort for the collapse of the ruble, actually only support these three areas, while the rest of the industry kicking themselves and suffer from financial starvation? As you know, much nicer to pull on the rubber than its pull. Interestingly, when our economic leadership will finally understand the profound meaning of this saying and take a step towards their own national currency.